Big Problems With Big Z

Before we get started: Ye be warned, this topic is exceedingly specific and probably of no interest to anyone unfamiliar with the acronym WARP. This article makes a whole bunch of assumptions about your, the reader's, knowledge regarding the 2007 baseball season and the recent woes of a certain moundsman for the Chicago Cubs. All 8 of you who are still interested, read on.

By now you've heard the news, Roger Clemens signed with the Yankees, Michael Vick is the Don King of dog fighting, the Spurs are dirty, Barry Bonds is trying to break some kind of record, and Brett Favre is angry. Oh yeah, and Carlos Zambrano is pitching really poorly. All these stories get plenty of pub, probably too much, but the last one intrigues me more than all of the others and I think is worthy of a closer look. Whereas those other topics have been exhausted in the extreme, and are not really about sports per se but much less interesting stuff, I promise to keep these ramblings (and ramblings they may be) on topic. Most importantly, I hope to offer you a new perspective on the Zambrano saga.

We'll open the floor with some questions. Is Carlos Zambrano's slow start just that - a slow start - or something far more serious and long-term? If the latter is the case, then how does a seemingly healthy pitcher so quickly go from among (fantasy) baseball's perennial elite to an average hurler or worse? We know that Dusty Baker's complete lack of discretion in regards to his pitching staff accelerated the ruination of 2 budding careers in Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, so is it such a stretch that Zambrano's 860IP under Baker might at some point come back to haunt his now just 25 year old right arm? And finally, as a brief postscript, might there be light at the end of this tunnel?

Let's start with that 1st question: Is Zambrano just off to a slow start? Maybe. The first and most common explanation for Big Z's early season problems is that he's still reeling from the aborted contract negotiations that he was pushing for in March. Recall that Zambrano will be a free-agent at season's end and that he spent the early part of Spring Training demanding the Cubs give him some kind of financial commitment going forward. The Cubs, however, were, at the time, frying bigger fish. In March, just as Zambrano was making all kinds of threats about holding out, and demanding trade talks, and other whiny, pro athlete stuff, the Tribune Co. announced that they would be selling the franchise by the end of 2007. Zambrano's pleas were suddenly overshadowed in the media and any leverage that he had was pulled right out from under him. Poor Carlos. Anyway, so the story goes, Carlos is still bitter about the whole episode and is letting it affect his game (this, at least, is the fodder of laughable newspaper rag and Jay Mariotti-type hacks). By this stunted logic, Zambrano is either a) trying too hard to prove he's worth his own asking price, over-throwing the ball or letting his emotions rule him or something (as if Carlos hasn't spent his entire career being an emotional time-bomb), or b) just going through the motions until the Cubs trade him, a-la Vince Carter at the tail end of his Raptors tenure. I think reasoning along these lines is lame because it completely ignores what is actually happening on the field and is too easy and obvious to be the whole story and in general not really worth the time of a proper rebuttal. Actually, the big fuss Zambrano made about his contract during Spring Training is relevant to this article, but not for psychological reasons. We'll come back to the issue later on.

If Carlos Zambrano's poor pitching is a topic you're familiar with, you may have also heard the refrain that Carlos is and has always been a slow-starter. Sports writers who take this line generally implore naysayers to 'just relax for now and if things don't improve by the middle of June then we can start to worry.' All it takes is a cursory glance at some career data to make the case. For instance, in April/May since 2003 (his first season as a full-timer) Big Z is 15-12 (44-20, otherwise) with a slightly inflated ERA, while recording 7.7K/9IP, a few tenths under his average during other months. But let's take a closer look. As ESPN's David Young points out, when you ignore Z's April 2006 (a really weird year for pitchers everywhere because of the WBC) and also properly weigh his team-dependent stats (ERA, W-L, BAA, most notably), Z's April/May's look almost identical to the numbers he puts up during the rest of the season. Even if you subscribe to the "just another slow-start theory", the first 2 months of 2007 have been off the charts bad for Carlos. There are other factors at play here besides cold weather and rusty limbs.

Now let's examine the possibility that Zambrano's early 2007 is not just a passing slump, but rather an expected downturn that may very well continue through the rest of this season and perhaps beyond. Pretty much every serious observer who's seen Carlos throw this year has made note of his wayward delivery and obviously flawed mechanics. At hardballtimes.com, Carlos Gomez (no, not the Mets up and coming speedster, but the retired major-league pitcher of zero fame), offers some pretty compelling video footage that compares Zambrano's 2005 delivery with his motion in 2007. Most notable is Big Z's arm slot, which is significantly lower now (nearly 10 degrees so) than in the past. This is huge. Among other things, the lowered release point causes his pitching arm to come way across his body after the release, making him really vulnerable to flying-open with his hips. This basically means that he doesn't "finish" a lot of his pitches. About 3 or 4 times per game this drop-down, fly-open motion is so exaggerated that it looks almost cartoonish. The effects of this awkward delivery are multifold.

The first and most conspicuous effect of this new arm angle is Zambrano's poor command. When Carlos opens his hips his left shoulder swings out toward first-base. While most pitchers use that off-shoulder to direct their momentum to the plate, literally pointing the shoulder at the catcher's glove, Carlos has to rely more on his pitching shoulder for accuracy while simultaneously fighting against the torque of his hips (as an approximate simulation try throwing with your feet spread horizontal while facing your target versus the way you were taught to throw). The video footage is pretty unequivocal in this regard, so how about the numbers? Admittedly, Z's "command" numbers are fairly innocuous. His walk totals are high, but we'll get to that in a minute. Z's pitch-counts, a huge indicator of command, have been normal. He's averaging about 17.5P/In at 3.9P/BF, right around his career percentages. Plus he's been around the strike zone. Carlos has thrown 1.5 strikes for every ball, an indifferent ratio. However there is one inconsistency among Z's numbers that jump out at me. Despite throwing over 60% of his total pitches for strikes, Carlos has managed first pitch strikes on just a hair over 40% of batter's faced (that's a 13% drop since 2005). And let's just agree that it need not be stated just how crucial is the difference between an 0-1 count and 1-0 count – okay, good. A lot of pitchers with great command hover around the 5strk/4b mark on purpose, taking advantage of early strikes to tempt batters to go out of the zone in deeper counts, but Carlos' failure to reach a higher number of 0-1 counts is a sure sign of inconsistency, even if overall ratios appear stable.

Now to get back to Zambrano's walk rate. Yes, Carlos has given up an inordinate amount of free-passes this year, a little over 1BB/2IP actually, but this shouldn't be a surprise. In terms of walking batters, Z has been significantly down-trending since late 2005. In 2006 Carlos walked 115 batters (a career high), nearly 30 more than he walked in 2005, in 9 less innings of work. Again, this spike in BB rate is especially disconcerting in light of his healthy strk/b ratio. To me this indicates that pitches that used to be swinging or called strikes are no longer missing opposing bats. It could also very well mean that Big Z is having less success getting batters to chase pitches that are out of the strike zone. Neither of these explanations bode well for Carlos. Is the new delivery the cause of Carlos' control issues, or has he invented this new delivery as an antidote to problems that existed beforehand? Again, we'll revisit this question.

Another major consequence of Zambrano's flailing delivery is what it's done to his sinker. Like most power-pitchers, Zambrano uses a combination of a hard slider and a "heavy" sinker to supplement his fastball. When it's tight, the slider is a devastating strikeout pitch and is occasionally used as an off-speed bid to right-handers. It's a great pitch. But over the long-haul it's been Z's sinker that's been the butter to his fastball's bread. When Z's mechanics are intact, particularly the arm slot (again, see the hardballtimes.com article), the sinker has later and steeper drop, more velocity, and no matter where it starts out seems to make a beeline for a righty's shoe-tops, biting inward just as the pitch exits the lawn. Squaring this pitch on the barrel is nearly impossible. Even when Big Z was walking a lot batters in 2006, he could count on the sinker for just as many groundballs (the great equalizer to high BB rates) and plenty of shattered wood to boot. As it is now, the lower release point puts a more pronounced backspin on the sinker. Backspin, as you may or may not be aware, increases draft and thereby mitigates gravity's pull on a moving object. In other words, Zambrano's sinker isn't sinking as much as it used to. This, the numbers definitely agree with. In 2005 Zambrano's GB/FB ratio was 1.64. In 2006 that number dropped to 1.23. So far in 2007, if you toss out an anomalous start on Apr. 23, that number is a very problematic 1.07. (Make sure to notice that this downtrend too is something that has roots in '06.)

But it's not just the sinker that looks different in 2007. Zambrano's 4-seamer, which the youngster has spent his career defying batters to hit, has also been revamped by the new low slinging delivery. Velocity is down from 94-96 mph range to 92-94. Like with the sinker, the increased spin on the fastball produces more backspin and a more pronounced late-lift (in reality, scientists will tell you, an optical illusion that really equates to less drop – whatever), and also way more horizontal break into right-handers. Zambrano's fastball (the remix) is not a strikeout pitch like its predecessor. As Gomez suggests in his article, perhaps this new fastball is a sign of maturity, that Zambrano is purposely allowing more balls to be put in play, sacrificing K's for pitch-count. But probably not, especially considering that the pitch's increased movement makes it harder to locate and accounts for more balls. And there's the answer to the question posed a few paragraphs back. This new delivery is not a correction to help Z with his control, quite the contrary. The new fastball, though a little slower, with that snakebite finish is as hard a pitch to command as any. This may also explain his difficulty finding the strike-zone on first pitches.

So, if this new delivery has no substantive benefits – is harder to control, results in fewer K's, causes more fly-balls, creates less velocity, etc. - and is apparent to even a modestly seasoned observer, why hasn't Zambrano and pitching coach Larry Rothschild done anything to change it. Furthermore, why did Carlos ever adopt this new delivery in the first place? Here is where Carlos Gomez's experience as an actual pitcher takes over. To paraphrase the article he wrote about Jon Papelbon, "A drop in arm-slot is one of the clearest indicators of a pitcher who is struggling with arm/shoulder soreness." This intuitively makes sense. Just lift your arm. Stress on your shoulder is directly proportional to the height of your elbow in relation to the shoulder blade. The lower the elbow, the less stress on the shoulder. Gomez draws an analogy to working out at the gym, "If you've ever done a shoulder workout with weights you know how hard it is to lift your arms afterward. Muscle soreness affects movement in the same as tissue soreness." And there's a second glitch in Zambrano's mechanics that indicate he's "protecting his shoulder". Watch in his '07 delivery how he's kind of hunched over, placing more body weight over his throwing shoulder, then taking longer to release out of this "hunch", and finally finishing with a sling of his elbow while leaving his shoulder behind. In short, Zambrano is using as little of his shoulder as possible to make each pitch. If this isn't all-together clear, at least note that it's really likely Big Z is suffering from some kind of shoulder ailment. And uh-oh if that's the case. Tommy John surgery makes elbow injuries a much less serious diagnosis, but shoulder injuries can be career death. The shoulder is much more complicated than the singular hinge of the elbow. One shoulder injury usually entails damage to a whole slew of muscles and any of several tissue structures. I'm not suggesting that Zambrano get filed away with the likes of Prior and Wood just yet, but don't think it's not possible.

And oh yeah, those contract negotiations at the beginning of Spring...hmmm. Over the last several seasons you may at one point or another have been jaw-dropped by the amount of money being made by free-agent pitchers. Very mediocre or unproven staffers like Gil Meche, A.J. Burnett, Barry Zito, and Jeff Weaver have cashed in on a pitcher's market that makes the dot.com era look like the Great Depression. At 25 years old and already considered among baseball's elite (assuming he's healthy), as a free-agent Zambrano could command upwards of $100 million on a 5+ year deal. Isn't it a bit odd that Zambrano was so eager to renew a deal with the Cubs or force a trade before getting to look at those kinds of offers? Are we to believe that Zambrano is such a loyal of a guy that he'd forgo a 9-figure deal so he could continue to pitch in the Friendly Confines? I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say no. There's something else going on here. Just connect the dots. As late as mid-2006 Zambrano started dealing with some serious shoulder problems. Overuse during the Dusty Baker years, though perhaps by other causes as well, put his young arm in a precarious position that he's been unable to deal with so far. His K's started to plummet while BB's went the other direction. Zambrano still finished 2006 strong, and it was by nearly every measure his best full-season (career highs in K's and wins). But he knew, as well as people who were watching close enough, that certain peripheral indicators were nearing the red (GB/FB and K/BB, in particular). Also, Zambrano was a first-hand witness to was the tragic demise of his two counterparts in Wood and Prior. I don't think it's such a stretch that as Spring Training was getting underway, and Zambrano was realizing that his shoulder was still less than 100% after resting in the off-season, Big Z felt a cold bony hand tapping his shoulder, turned to see the black cloak of baseball death and did his best to cash out while he still could.

Okay, one final caveat to this whole morbid eschatology, a healthy Carlos Zambrano is more than just a good pitcher, he's an extraordinary athlete, and all real athletes, unlike guys who just specialize in doing a few things really well, are usually much more adept at making the necessary adjustments when mechanics break down or certain physical skills wane (note how in just the last few years, athletic types like Tim Hudson, Kenny Rogers, Tom Glavine, and Jason Marquis have successfully reinvented their pitching styles). It wouldn't shock me if Zambrano slowly gets more comfortable with his new delivery, learns to better locate that fastball, further develops his change, and realizes that this new sinker can't be thrown in the strike zone. I don't think the K's will get back to the 1/IP range, but his BB rate could easily start to trend back to 2005 levels (his FB/GB ratio will probably stay pretty high as long as that arm-slot stays low). In the end, barring a major shoulder injury, Big Z could end up a good major-league pitcher, if not a great one. Then again, even if his arm does fail him, Big Z might think about honing that savage swing of his. In just 73 AB's in 2006, the switch-hitting Zambrano wacked 6 homers, drove in 11 runs, and even stole a base. In a 500 AB season that projects out to 40 HR's! His career BA is only .213 but for a guy who gets in the cage maybe once a month that's not so bad. In the end we may lose a very good and promising pitcher, but we also may have found the second coming of Smokey Joe Wood.

Official Racism

A friend of mine sent me a link to the following article which concerns a study done on the supposed racial biases of NBA officials. Please read it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/02/sports/basketball/02refs.html
Interesting.

What do you think?

I mulled over this for a bit and decided to offer a few words of caution to anyone who's now eager to take this study as proof of racism. It's a rebuttal of sorts.

It sounds to me like the Wolfers-Price study is pretty sound. I have no doubt that the data is accurate and their results genuine. I'm not even entirely surprised by the findings, I just don't agree that these results necessarily indicate a racial prejudice. That is, I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest that black players get called for more fouls because black players do in fact commit more fouls. Before calling me a racist, at least hear me out. The most compelling aspect of the study to me (and why the NBA's counter-study means nothing) is that W.P. managed to adjust for potentially problematic variables - that centers are disproportionately white, veterans get more favorable calls than rookies, home v. road biases, influence of certain coaches, and finally, "player assertiveness". These variables are crucial as far as I'm concerned, and if I were to question this study at all this is exactly where I'd focus my energy.

The first question you have to ask is, the study claims to have accounted for all of these other factors, beyond race, which would (I agree) affect the way fouls are called, but what methods exactly were used to correct for these effects? In any kind of multivariable regression corrections like this are to some extent arbitrary, or at least less than exact. Since we're dealing with such a thin statistical margin those external adjustments have a major affect on the final analysis. So, how much of this is really just the numbers speaking for themselves? Another question to ask is, are the variables W.P. accounted for (even assuming corrections for these variables are accurate) enough, or are there other more subtle variables that may have been overlooked? How attuned to the pro-game does a researcher have to be to understand the particular scenario in which a bench player, for instance, might be put into a game with the specific intention of committing a foul? Or to be able to recognize a hard foul that's committed to disrupt a fast-break vs. a nickel-dimer hand check at the top of the key? Can we assume that an academic researcher understands those subtleties?

The most interesting possible oversight of the W.P. study to me revolves around the influx of white/European players into the NBA over the last 5 years (and it's unclear if European and Latin players are a distinct "race" for the purposes of this study). This influx has given rise, or occurred simultaneously to a major shift in the way basketball is played in the NBA. During the mid-90's (when this study began) the NBA game was lower scoring and by all accounts a more defensive one. Without having any data available to me, I would guess that more fouls were committed on average during these years than at any other time in the game's history. As it happens, the mid-90's also was the apex of black predomination in the NBA, all to the effect that there were more black players committing more fouls during this era. There then began a steady transformation. As the early 00's rolled on the NBA was more and more liberally opening its doors to white Europe. Concomitantly, after embarrassing losses in the Olympics and World Games, NBA teams like the Suns and Mavericks began adopting the faster, more free-flowing, and less physical style that's played in the international arena. Over the last couple of seasons this style has continued to take hold throughout the league. Also, as you know, the NBA has gone through a number of rule changes (the zone defensive most notably, and also the oversight of moving screens which a lot of tall white centers are the benefactors of) that have reduced the amount of fouls called in the NBA. And there's a few major implications here: the NBA goes from a foul-happy, grind-it-out league in the 90's that's almost entirely black, to a league that over the last 5 years is less physical, more fluid, and has seen an unprecedented proliferation of white players. Does the W.P. study acknowledge this very real and dramatic shift?

Lastly, what jumped out at me from the study was the last variable included in their calculus: "player assertiveness". The obvious: what is "player assertiveness"? How is it defined? How is it quantified? Not only is "player assertiveness" a quality that is exceedingly difficult (if even possible) to measure but also in my mind, for this study, the most significant variable of them all. To anyone being honest with himself there is a very recognizable difference between the way black players play basketball and the way white players do. There are, of course, exceptions on both sides but this study is no more concerned with exceptions than I am. The most glaring difference between white and black players is that black players are more physically imposing - stronger, faster, bigger. To me these characteristics don't necessarily translate into aggressiveness, or assertiveness (whatever the difference there), but do translate into presence, by which I mean that a stronger, faster, bigger athlete is more likely to be involved in more of the action than his slower, more diminutive counterpart. In the same way that a more athletic shortstop will attempt more groundballs, and therefore be prone to more errors, a more athletic basketball player will be involved in more defensive plays and more prone to committing fouls. I also think there is a very real argument that exists in examining where these players come from before they get to the NBA. Is Ron Artest's New York upbringing a coincidence or a predicate of his basketball persona? Does hip-hop culture's lionizing of thugishness and posturing influence the play of black players? It is no secret that the NBA (unofficially) embraces these credos and that its players mimic them with very inconspicuous gestures (look no further than Matt Barnes, as a pre-game ritual, patting down Stephen Jackson like a cop performing a weapons search on a suspected assailant). Is it such a stretch that this belligerent attitude manifests during play? Isn't it also true that white players (especially European ones) don't exhibit, at least to the same extent, the attitudes of that culture? And why wouldn't that be reflected in how "aggressively" or "assertively" a player plays defense.

Obviously there is a lot to be teased out of any analysis of this kind. The W.P. study claims to have teased out potential complicating issues to the best of their statistical ability (one that galactically exceeds mine) but I wonder just how far they went, and even if they accounted for everything, the method by which they did it. Ultimately, I tend to think that this study confirms not what I would call "subconscious racism", as did the article, but instead exposes very real and intractable racial differences (maybe more accurately just cultural differences that for now take hold along racial lines). Maybe black players do commit more fouls. Unfortunately anyone who suggested as much publicly would be harangued. "That's just racist, man, that's ignorant." Good thing we can't even talk about it, heaven forbid we might learn something.

St. Louis, to Zona, to San Diego

For people who haven't given up on this blog yet...

I'm back in my old stomping grounds of Pacific Beach, San Diego. But before regaling you with stories of epic Mario Tennis battles, dive bars, pick-up basketball games at the PB Rec center, drunk sorority girls sashaying down Garnett Avenue in not a lot of clothes, and spending my days (and nights) on one of the most comfortable couches ever, let's take a look at some of what's happened since leaving St. Louis.

First, Spring Training in Arizona was awesome. I got to Tempe on a Wednesday morning, a full day before the rest of my friends were to arrive. Rather than pay $50 for a lonesome night at a Motel 6, I decided to take my chances on a stranger's couch. There's a website called Couchsurfer.com which I became acquainted with after my sister-in-law told me about it way back in September. The premise is straightforward: travelers are offered other couchsurfer's couches, or spare beds, or whatever, and in return those travelers offer theirs when they get home. I know at first glance it sounds like something on which Chris Hanson and the Catch A Predator crew might do an expose, but it's actually quite legitimate and absolutely great for all sorts of reasons. The obvious draw is that it's free, and for the young, largely unemployed, and if not unemployed then certainly underfunded set, the budgeting advantages are self-evident. It's also a great way to become acclimated to a new place. Traveling can be overwhelming, particularly if done alone, and even more so if done alone and in a foreign country. What better way to explore a new city and learn a new culture than from someone who already lives there? While Arizona isn't exactly foreign to me, I was glad to have a willing companion to pick me up from the airport, take me to dinner (at a restaurant called Chino Bandidos, a Mexican-Chinese fusion joint where you can grind on some very tasty dishes like emerald chicken enchiladas or Kung Pao beef burritos), and introduce me to loads of very interesting people, all citizens of the couchsurfing community. And while I was admittedly skeptical about the whole thing, all those apprehensions were immediately relieved upon meeting my gracious host, a kinder person I have yet to meet. Cooler still, the same night I slept on a surprisingly comfortable blowup mattress in a very fine apartment in south Tempe my host also happened to be accommodating a young couple from Brussels, Helene and Steffon Vandenberghe. Apparently Steffon is a well-regarded Belgian musician. So while not only staying a night in Arizona for free, I also got to rub shoulders with foreign celebrity. Which was fun.

On Thursday night my friends from San Diego arrived and things got a bit lairy. At the risk of sounding like all I ever do is travel to different places and drink myself silly (only partly true), I have to admit that the Phoenix area is a partying man's oasis. We ended up staying in North Tempe, just south of Scottsdale, which turned out to be a prime outpost for feeding the old drinking habit. Head south and your run into Mill Ave., the heart of Sun Devil country. Head north and you'll find the more glitzy confines of Scottsdale, which seemed to me like a mix of San Diego's Gaslamp district and Las Vegas. I've never really been to downtown LA but I imagine it looks a lot like Scottsdale. We spent all of our three nights running around these places like a bunch of dipsomaniacs, and I regret to say that I remember very little of it – except 2 things. 1) I heard one of the funniest pick-up lines ever. My friend took a liking to a very well, though obviously artificially proportioned waitress late on Saturday night. In a desperate attempt to make the night a bit more memorable he asked her for her number and she flatly rejected him, explaining that she was moving the next day or something, which apparently entailed her not having a phone. Really, she could not have been less interested. My friend, propelled by inebriated gusto and the obvious fact that no matter how badly he got embarrassed it was okay because he would never see this girl again, called the waitress over to our table about 10 minutes after his first rejection and unleashed this gem, "Forget about your phone number, how 'bout I give you the best 15 seconds of your life?" Not only was every human being in earshot completely gut-busted, after a moment in which the waitress just stood there silently, completely domed, trying to figure what just transpired, she actually gives my friend her phone number then proceeds to call him at 3am that very evening. Too bad my friend was passed out by then, lying in our room getting Sharpie drawn all over his body. Good times. 2) This may not be the place to rear this conversation, but something came up while we were in Scottsdale that needs clarification. While out at the bars one night we walk by two really big black guys going into some club, who had cornrows, were wearing all sorts of expensive jewelry, and had just stepped out of some candy painted suped up El Dorado. While I had no idea who they were I half-jokingly mentioned that they must be Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald (wide receivers for the Arizona Cardinals), and if not those guys then two other NFL players, or anyway, based on their size, obviously professional athletes. An argument ensued in which I was called racist and ignorant. But those guys have to play football, right? I'm not saying that they're athletes just because they're rich and they're black, of course there's plenty of rich black guys who aren't celebrities (that stereotype is sooooo played), it's the cornrows that give it away. You're just not going to see Larry Fitzgerald Esquire walking around with his briefcase while rocking some rows. If you're rich enough to be wearing platinum chains, you're a huge black guy going into a club called Mist or Crystalz or something, you're rocking braids, and you're not dressed up for Halloween, the chances are that you play professional sports. How is that racist?

Oh woops, I forgot that it's uncouth to speak candidly about race. Try and forget that last paragraph if you're offended.

The Spring Training games themselves were also handfuls of fun. We went to a game each of the days we were there and saw 6 different teams. The best part about Spring Training is that the atmosphere is incomparably more intimate than watching regular season baseball. At those 50,000 seat stadiums you can consider your seats good if you can read the names on the back of the player's jerseys. At Spring Training you could be standing behind one of the owners while you're in line for a hotdog. You can walk up to the bullpen and watch pitchers warm-up from just a few feet away, close enough to see the different spin on a 2-seam fastball and a slider. Usually by the 3rd inning there's vacant seats right up in the first few rows and the ushers couldn't care less if you sit down in them without a ticket. And most importantly, you're close enough to the action that you can heckle the shit out of the players. For most games it's no problem to get cheap tickets for the right or left field bleachers. Usually we would be sitting out there, 5 or 6 of us, in mostly empty rows of seats, drinking beers with our shirts off, and making fun of guys who have 5 more days before they're optioned to their minor league clubs in Tulsa or El Paso. "Hey 86, I don't even know what to say to you, you're number is 86." Or, "92, nice 14-hop to the cutoff man. If you can get that relay throw down to like 8 or 10 hops maybe they'll give you a number in the 60's next year." You know, really funny stuff like that. This year our prime target heading into the games was the Brewer's newly acquired leftfielder, Kevin Mench, a player who we skewered 2 years ago while he was on the Rangers. Mench, as baseball fans know, has one of, if not THE biggest head in human history. That thing is it's own county. One of my friend's was worried that he wouldn't be able to work on his tan during the game because Mench's head would cause a solar eclipse. Unfortunately Mench must have found out that we were coming to their game against the Cubs as he sat that one out. Our attentions quickly turned to the Angel's embattled free agent, Gary Matthews Jr., who has been under heavy scrutiny since it was discovered that he was a major client for a company that distributes HGH and other banned performance enhancing drugs. After playing a few innings in center, just far enough from our seats to be properly heckled, Matthews had to exit the stadium from the tunnel in right field. Stopping to sign autographs was the worst decision he ever made. As soon as G-Matt got within earshot we were out of our seats and in that guy's dome. "Hey Gary, my 40 time is a little down, you think you could loan me some of those PEDS." "It's cool Gary, Jose Canseco started taking HGH at about your age too, and look how good the 2nd half of his career worked out." "So how much you benching these days?" Rereading those lines now, it doesn't really seem all that funny, but try and appreciate the improvisation. We were all cracking up at the time.

As a quick aside to the Spring Training games, two players really made an impression on me as potential breakout candidates for the 2007season – Bill Hall and Aramis Ramirez. Bill Hall plays centerfield for the Brewers and quietly hit 35 homers for them while playing shortstop last season. For fantasy leaguers, Hall still has SS eligibility in Yahoo formats and is a very solid middle round draft pick. At the game we saw he looked like a young Griffey Jr. out there in centerfield and swung a Jr.-like stick as well. Ramirez, the Cubs 3rd baseman, is a perennial 30-100 guy who, with the addition of Soriano and a healthy Derek Lee, is primed for a HUGE year. I suggest drafting both of those guys in your fantasy leagues.

_________________

I've now been in San Diego for almost 2 weeks and I am happy to say that things here are just as I left them. The weather is still bright and cool. The pace of things is languid. My friends and I spend our free time playing video games, old-man softball, and arguing about sports. The other day I played golf for the first time in about a year and I still can't putt worth a damn. We played wiffle-ball down at the beach yesterday, where Gilbert and I absolutely owned Shields and Keel, then barbequed some steaks for dinner and watched the first set of sweet-16 games. On Wednesday I saw a double-feature at the cineplex in Clairemont, Zodiac and 300. Both enjoyable. I've been playing basketball almost everyday over at the PB rec center, just a short walk from the apartment where I stay. Dan the Bum still sits out on that park bench everyday, high as kite, watching the games and yelling obscenities at no one in particular. Dan only becomes a problem when, as happened yesterday, he starts throwing his shoes onto the court. Lenny, at least 60 years old and as I understand it recently recovered from bypass surgery, is still out there everyday also, hobbling around in his sweat pants and backwards baseball cap, not yet ready to hang up the sneakers. My hope is that he never will. I was disappointed to see Terry playing out there last week. He used to be a star shooting-guard at USD, playing in a few NCAA tournaments, good enough to play professionally but still unwilling to take his chances at a career overseas in a place like Turkey or Greece. He talks about it whimsically and often, but after all of the talking and daydreaming he is still stuck in San Diego. To consider Terry's potential and the opportunities available to him is frustrating for me because I often wish I could do the very thing that he seems unwilling to even attempt. Perhaps the leisurely atmosphere of rec-league ball suits him just fine.

As you might imagine, my time in San Diego has been unbelievably relaxing. I have not once felt the shutter of stress, or compelled to rush, or the need to consider anything beyond the moment I am in. Tomorrow is a needless concept here. I will be in San Diego for some amount of time and then I will leave. I still plan to visit LA soon, and I will be back in the Bay at some point as well. But when exactly, I can't say. Next week a friend is coming from San Francisco and I will stay at least until then. I hope everyone is doing well. As always, my regards.

Another Manic Monday

This late Monday night malaise has struck suddenly and out of nowhere. It was day and then the sun disappeared while I showered and vacuumed my room. The sun promised so much today, so bright and long arcing, so sure of its glory, and then tip-toes away like a thief, or like a beautiful thing leaving too early from a bar, before there is time, even, to buy it a drink. The darkness went from purple to black, but I didn't notice that either. I don't much feel like going out; it's past the hour of such decisions anyway. I am alone of course. The television is absolutely unwatchable. It is somehow both excruciatingly painful and all-together numbing. Mind rape. On the counter there is a bowl of undercooked spaghetti undergoing an unidentity crisis, hot supper or forgotten leftovers. The spaghetti must feel like those poor humans born on the cusp of two zodiac signs, at war with itself forever. The spaghetti smells likes nothing. The apartment is stale and quiet, not even wind enough to make the windowsills whistle, or a loud movie from the downstairs neighbors to defeat the refrigerator's intermittent din. Since turning off the television I've just been sitting here, allowing my thoughts to run in circles, unleashed like Labradors at the park. Which is okay. Calm. But the contents of my mind, having spilled out my ears and onto the rug, have left the old eggshell a bit hollowed out. And I'm left to scraping at the musk covered husk.

On account of the cerebral void, eventually I am vaulted involuntarily into a conscious world I'd rather avoid. Somewhere beneath the flotsam of daily minutia, which for now has been hacked away with this mixed metaphor like a slag hammer, is a deep and frigid ocean of liquid thought. The mind swells with such waters, you know? And they so often remain unexplored, grave and alien creatures, drastic landscapes, unbearable pressure, sheer darkness. Who of you have traveled such places before? Hands. Surely we all go there from time to time, no? On our own accord, at random or pensive times as now, or taken there by the hand of recreational drugs or by dreams (although I'd say the oneiric experience is a whole nother pancake entirely – whatever). In any case, come with me on a dive down here for a spell and laugh, as I do, at the absurdity of it.

At first sight it appears that everything at these depths is colored in a profound light (or non-light as it were). Things begin to get heavy, on account of our depth and the corresponding fluid-pressure, and as the descent continues the surroundings turn poignant, then depressing. An anglerfish picks a banjo and sings a bluegrass ballad about his long bygone belle from Birmingham. Existential eels quote Kierkegaard to nihilistic needlefish. Pressure mounting still. It is like being buried beneath wheelbarrow loads of sentiment sediment. Cliches drift in these parts like parasitic microbes. See that one there? Who cares anyway, it's just dust in the wind. Cosmic metaphors swim by with sharp teeth and chromatic scales. Universal truths tread water amongst remembered dreams like clown fish amongst anemones. Irony rips across the far above surface on a Sea-Doo, too far from here to be seen. This is where Buddhists come to meditate and new-agers come to experiment with alternative medicines. I will suffocate down here if this lasts much longer.

It's midnight already? I'm going to bed.

One More Thing, Actually Two

In my recent bout with near-boredom I've been toying with some alternative blog templates. The page might look different from what your used to but it's the same content. I think I'll stick with this look for now, but it will probably be changing in the near future.

Also, on the right side column, under the "About Me" information, you can find a links section. In my Google work I come across quite a few interesting websites. I've started to compile some of my favorites, along with with other notable pages that I otherwise like or think are worth taking a look at. Go ahead and explore. Even if there's a lull in the posts, I'll probably be adding links on a daily basis.

Not Bored, But Getting There

I've received several e-mails asking for an update on my brother's condition. In short, he's fine. Not 100%, but just yesterday we were able to explore downtown St. Louis and even throw the pigskin around in the park for a few hours. It's next to a sure thing that he'll be back working part-time at the hospital by March 1st. The color in his skin is back. He's able to do basic chores and has even been able to drive himself around for short periods. His recovery has been as smooth as we could ask for.

The reason I haven't written anything for a few weeks is because there has been nothing to write about it. My brother's health is an exhausted topic at this point, don't you think? And what else is there? Jake and I sit on the couch virtually all day. I do my Google stuff, and Jake watches TV and surfs the net. (Our channel of choice has been the Food Network. It's seems to me a fair compromise between ESPN and whatever channel my brother would choose if I wasn't here. But it's bland. Though never grating or altogether unwatchable, the Food Network is also never that intriguing either. Right now we're watching the 1986 classic, "Lucas" on WEtv. Until now I never realized what kind of star-power this movie has – aside form Corey Haim of course, there's Jeremy Piven as the bullying meathead, Charlie Sheen as the unlikely nice guy, a very nerdy Winona Ryder, and the hot chick from Goonies. What a cast!) As the weather has allowed, we've spent a few days strolling through St. Louis's Forest Park, an enormous and well-designed public space that actually trumps New York's Central Park in sheer size. The park has a few museums, a zoo, tennis courts, 3 9-hole golf courses, an ice-skating rink, all kinds of sports fields, and is just a few minutes walk from our townhouse. Unfortunately, Jake tires quickly and walking even half of the park's 6 mile trail is a grueling exercise. And anyway, until this last weekend, the weather has been intolerable. Arctic cold fronts brought several days of snow flurries and we went 2 weeks in which the temperature rarely got above freezing. The park, like just about everything outside of these 4 walls, has existed more as an idea over the last few weeks than as a real, viable thing.

But all of this idle lying about has at least opened the door for planning out future adventures. On March 7th I'm heading to Phoenix for Spring Training. Hopefully reinvigorated by a long weekend of sunshine, I'll then continue west and settle again in my old stomping grounds of Pacific Beach, San Diego. I'll probably spend the rest of March in San Diego then slowly start heading north after the NCAA tournament comes to a close. I should be back in the Bay by the end of April, and after spending some time at home, perhaps a week or so, it will back to the road. I am currently planning a 5 month expedition across the continuous 48. I'll be setting off from San Fran sometime in the middle of April and I plan on touching down in NYC by the middle of Sept. All stops in between are currently being weighed on points of convenience, general interest, cost, and novelty. If anyone has any suggestions, or better yet, knows anyone who would be willing to let me sleep on their couch for an indefinite time at some point this summer, then I would be more than appreciative. Anyone who assists in my journey will be rewarded with a postcard from whichever destination they contribute to my itinerary. Sweet, huh?

Oooh, Pee-Wee's Big Adventure just came on. I'll write more later.

A Parable For Why Jake Needs To Stay On the Couch And Rest Right Now Instead of Yelling At Me For Not Letting Him Go Outside And Do Things

I remember reading a poem once, or maybe it was a short story, in which the writer describes a farm after an especially horrible and violent storm. In great detail the piece tells of the flooded crop, the uprooted trees, the battered roofs and dented silos, livestock lying dead amidst the rubble of pig-pens and old barns, the windmill leaning to kiss the earth, stuff like that, and then describes the old farmer stepping out from the cellar to take stock of the damage. The farmer is sad and then angry. He laments his bad fortune and curses god and mother-nature for their indiscriminate wrath.

From this point in the story there's several resolutions that could all serve our current circumstances in a unique way. 1) The farmer puts on his work gloves, steps out into the post-storm sunlight, and starts picking up the pieces. 2) The farmer receives news of his neighbor down the road who was caught out in the storm and died, putting his own misfortune into perspective. 3) The farmer turns despondent and remiss, letting his farm slowly wither and fade, and lives the remainder of an impoverished and unsatisfying life.

All of these endings are applicable to Jake's situation now, but also all kind of prosaic and obvious, and frankly boring. This particular story chooses an ending that I remember caught me completely off-guard at the time, and now seems more pertinent than ever. Eager to mend the damage from the horrific storm, the farmer immediately sets out with his winter-coat, his snow-boots, and his toolbox, and slaves all day until the sun dips below the flat horizon. Satisfied with all the work he has done, the farmer decides to retire to the house and spend the rest of the night by the fire. He resolves to be up early and working again the following morning. In total darkness the farmer starts to walk towards his house. He is tired, his muscles are sore, the freezing winter air numbs his nerves, his emotions are still seething from the tumultuous episode of the storm. The farmer reaches the patio and steps onto the bricked path that leads to the front door. Having neglected to salt the walkway, the ice is thick and smooth. The farmer's foot slips and he drops to the ground like a cartoon character who's stepped on a banana peel. The farmer, just yards from his house, hits his head on a rock and dies instantly. The end.

Inch By Inch

The last few days have been as good as we could hope for. When I posted that last message on Friday night, we were all heading back to our hotel rooms for another bout of fitful sleep. My mind raced all night. I dreamed that Jake and I were playing paintball against Jeff Shields and Bobby Knight. I was getting angry because Jake was stuffing his mouth with BBQ ribs and not paying any attention to the game. We kept getting shot at and Jake would just sit there eating his ribs and wiping BBQ sauce all over my shirt.

I wake at 7:30 and walk to the ICU unit. I find my dad in his gown getting ready to enter the room. We go in together and sit quietly while the doctors take their rounds and discuss his condition. "Jake's oxygen saturation has been improving," they say. "His PEEP can be lowered for a trial run this afternoon. We'll monitor his response to that and consider extubation for late this evening or early in the morning. The cultures show a response to the Vanco and for now we'll keep the doses steady on that. X-rays show the MeRSA has been contained through the night so we can start breathing easier on that front. What we'll watch now is the ARDS induced spontaneous pneumo. His lungs are still a mess – residual infections, stray bacterium, ulcerated and/or necrotic tissue in the lungs and stomach – these are the things we'll pay special attention to for the time being. Let's get him on some Flolan. See if we can avoid putting a pinch on his stomach. Keep the oxygen at 8."

Jake's eyes are closed and he doesn't seem to be comprehending any of it. Dad and I nod and do our best to pretend like we understand. I'm learning how to decipher certain bits and pieces of what they say, but it's still mostly nonsense. Their coded language is best interpreted by studying facial expressions. You look for signs that indicate general trends – good or bad, urgent or plodding, effective or futile – and ignore the details and technical jargon. It's like looking through a window with the blinds partly drawn. You collect evidence by focusing on what's unobstructed, then create crude images to fill in what's hidden. You put it all together and you can come up with an approximation of the truth. It's the best you can do.

On Saturday morning the obvious signs are almost all good. His fever has been in double-digits for 18 hours. He's stopped reacting violently when his eyes open. When we say his name he can raise his hand as high as the restraints will allow. He's stopped fighting the breathing machine. His skin has some color. A just barely perceptible spark flickers somewhere behind his eyes. Life lives there.

Dad and I have breakfast in the cafeteria. The bland, greasy, mushy food manages to taste like a gourmet feast. Jake is floating in some anesthetic non-world, far from his hell, and his condition is more stable than it's been since he arrived at the hospital 7 days ago. Dad and I fall into our usual banter. We speculate on the Super Bowl. Dad thinks it will be a 4 touchdown Colts lead by halftime. I think the foul weather will play to Chicago's advantage and I do my best to defend Rex Grossman. Neither one of us cares. We both agree that with The Departed and Blood Diamond DiCaprio has finally turned the corner. Alan Arkin's character in Little Miss Sunshine was incredible and it's too bad his character had to die because the movie fell a little flat afterward. So what's the deal with Obama? Does this guy actually have any policies or is he just a personality? We could be at Nation's getting breakfast before a 10am tee-time. We're finally a bit relaxed.

We receive yet more promising news in the afternoon as Jake's condition continues to progress. The head of the Infectious Diseases Department comes up to the ICU to check on my brother and give the rest of us a layman's explanation of what's going on. In short, the doctor's have found a combination of antibiotics that will keep the staph from doing any more damage to his lungs. The pneumonia is, and will be, something we're just gonna have to let resolve itself. The pneumonia is severe but in light of Jake's age and general health he has a very strong chance of getting through this okay. The doctor puts a hand on my dad's shoulder and smiles. In other words, as far as the infection goes the worst of the storm has passed and now we can concentrate on damage control. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but in a few days it will just be a matter of cleaning up the mess.

The latest X-rays look better. At 5:30pm Jake has a breathing test. The doctors predict that he'll be able to last 45 minutes with the machine turned off. During the test he's able to breath on his own for an hour and 50 minutes with his saturation never falling below 80%. All this comes as a very pleasant surprise and a much needed sheaf of unequivocally positive news. So far today, only steps forward. We decide to celebrate with a nice dinner at an Italian restaurant downtown. We get seated right by the door and get hit by wafts of cold air every time someone walks in or out. The service is slow. The food is just okay and the wine is a little sour. But like breakfast in the cafeteria, none of it matters. We could have been at Chili's or the French Laundry. The food tastes as good as we feel. As we're finishing our last bottle of wine mom gets a phone call from the hospital. Jake has been extubated. The perfect capper to a great day. They're gonna let Jake try and get through the night with just the nose and chest tubes, but the bulky PVC looking apparatus lodged down his throat is now gone.

Super Bowl Sunday. Still adjusting to the new time-zone, I wake early again. Up in the ICU I'm alone with Jake for the first time since his extubation and I'm startled to find that he can speak. He is absolutely delirious. They've had him on morphine through the night and he's just now starting to come down. He tells me the walls are orange and then he shudders in fear when he explains that there are cameras and microscopes in the ceiling spying at him. It's a bittersweet morning. He's coming back to life but the cost of that awareness is terrible pain and uncertainty. He has no memory of the last 6 days of his life and he has absolutely no clue where he is, how he got there, or what he's doing. He tells me he wants Chef Chao. Lindsey shows up and Jake lectures her on the importance of taking the express train. The whole thing is bizarre. He kicks his legs out. He fights the arm restraints. He tells me to hang around for a while so I can meet his younger brother. He tries to curl up into the fetal position and then jerks out splay-legged and supine. It's like he has DT's.

The whole day is like this. The doctors give him Adivan to try and help the anxiety but nothing works. He complains about pain all over his body. He says that he can't breathe and thinks that he's gonna die. His breathing is a little suspect. His oxygen saturation hovers between 85%-95%. Not ideal but okay for now. Any worse and the doctors will have to put the mouth tube back in. But any better and they might be able to take out the chest tube the following morning. Jake fights the pain and is as surly as ever. He calls the nurse an asshole. He tells me to fuck-off when I try and massage his arm. "What the fuck is with Lindsey's jacket?" he says. "Is she fucking wearing a black jacket? Fuck that." He tells me that one of the interns he works with has a huge rack and a fat ass, and is a slut. Without segue, he then asks for his mommy and apologizes for being a bad boy. It's just weird.

In the afternoon the doctors okay a dosage of Haledol, an antipsychotic that would put an ordinary person to sleep for a week. The jerking movements slow and then stop. He's still delirious but his mind is noticeably more sedate. As the day wears on he grows less and less disoriented. We put the Super Bowl on the TV in his room. "Do you know who's playing, Jake?" "Chicago versus Nebraska." Close enough. "What day is it, Jake?" "It's May 27th, 2006. I've never been to Seattle. I'm in Chicago on the 6th floor." "It's actually February 4th and you're at Barnes hospital in St. Louis." "Okay, thanks guys. I'm really glad you could all come here."

Doctors come by through the late evening and into the night. They all explain to Jake what's going on and you can sense that he's starting to comprehend his situation. By the time the Super Bowl ends he knows that it's February and that he's in St. Louis. By the time Lindsey and I return from the cafeteria at 10pm he knows who we all are and he knows that he has a bad case of pneumonia. He is in horrible pain and it's difficult to watch him struggle. He nearly comes to tears any time someone leaves the room and he begs that someone stay with him through the night. One by one we slowly make our way back to the hotel room. Matt and Janine go, then my dad, then Lindsey and I step out around 2am. My mom holds his hand through the night. Everyone sleeps.



(That picture was actually taken on Monday morning. Despite how it might look, Jake is considerably more "with it" today. Enough so, anyway, that the doctors though it prudent that dad, Matt, and Janine could return home.)